Saturday, March 19, 2011

Some stats about the entries

Usually the best way to win at these tournament brackets is to be the one who picks a champion that no one else picked.  Just as The Champ.  He had Duke last year when Kansas was the prohibitive favorite.  With that in mind let's look at where the picks are going.

Champion       # times picked

Ohio St                10
Kansas                  3
Pitt                         1
N. Carolina            1
Duke                      9
Texas                     1

So the smart money is split pretty evenly between the Buckeyes and the Dookie.  But, since there are so many points riding on the final game, a win by Kansas, Pitt, UNC, or Texas is going to vault someone up the leaderboard in a hurry.  On the flip-side, if Ohio St. or Duke do win, it's going to be tight.  So tight, in fact, that losing a point or two in the early rounds may be the ultimate difference in taking home cold hard cash and muttering, "Wait 'till next year," as the winner buys a round of beers at Green Flash.  (hint, hint)  If there is a tie, and we need to go to the score predictions to break it, then it might be even closer.  The standard deviation (yes, I actually did take the time to punch in that formula on the Excel sheet for this contest, and I do realize that I am dangerously close to being a serious bracket nerd, but I did refrain from running multi-variable regression scenarios on all of your brackets to get a probability for each entry, so just be thankful I'm not subjecting you to that level of anal-retention, and yes, this is the world's longest run-on sentence) of the score guesses is only 6ish. This could be quite fun in the end.  Prepare your best whining arguments about why you should get another point in the first round now...

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